New England’s electricity supply is projected to be sufficient for the upcoming summer, but concerns are emerging regarding future winter conditions. After two decades of decreasing consumption, electricity demand in the region is poised for a rise.

ISO-New England, the governing body for the six-state power grid, anticipates that the region possesses ample power generation capacity – encompassing gas, nuclear, hydropower, solar, and wind – to fulfill projected needs this summer. The increasing prevalence of rooftop solar installations, known as behind-the-meter solar, plays a significant role by reducing reliance on centralized power plants. The contribution of rooftop solar has been steadily growing; in April, it briefly generated approximately five times the electricity produced by the Seabrook Station nuclear plant. This localized electricity production is a key factor behind the steady decline in overall power plant electricity generation over the past 20 years.

Data from ISO-NE reveals a notable decrease in “net energy use,” dropping from 136,425 gigawatt-hours in 2005 to 116,813 gigawatt-hours in 2024 – a reduction of nearly 15%. Initiatives such as demand response programs, where consumers voluntarily reduce energy usage, have also contributed to this trend.

Looking ahead, the greatest challenges are expected during winter months when solar power output diminishes significantly. ISO-NE forecasts a shift from a “summer peaking” pattern to “winter peaking” within the next few years. This shift poses a potential issue because New England’s energy system relies heavily on natural gas, which is also in high demand for residential heating during the colder months, potentially increasing costs and limiting availability.

For the immediate summer period, ISO-NE anticipates peak demand to reach 24,803 megawatts (MW) under typical weather conditions, enough to power roughly 18,000-24,000 homes. Demand could escalate to 25,886 MW during extended heatwaves, but the region maintains the capacity to generate 29,000 MW, exceeding historical peak demand. Despite the positive outlook, ISO-NE stresses the risk of disruptions from extreme weather events, which could lead to localized power issues.